Extension 2010 and Tier V – Where They Stand in the Lame Duck Agenda
Michael Colliss.
Many long time observers of the U.S. Congress are beginning to see signs the agenda for the United States Congress during the lame duck session is beginning to take form. Before the lame duck session, the Democratic leadership had anticipated as many as 20 significant legislative actions during the lame duck. Now, recovering from their midterm losses, which President Obama called “a shellacking,” the Democratic leadership of both the House and the Senate are becoming resigned to a significantly scaled back list of hoped for legislation during the lame duck. It is reported that discussions are already being held between Congressional staff on what exactly can be enacted. The final, pared down list of legislative initiatives will probably not be clear until the Democratic leadership can meet with members upon their return to Washington next week but it does appear that unemployment extensions and possibly a Tier V legislation remain one of the items that will be taken up.
Looking at the history of midterms when there has been a shift in party control (which has occurred in the House in the November 2 election) it seems that the only things which get attention during such lame duck sessions are those things that A) have to be passed to avert a deadline or expiration and/or B) those things which can be quickly passed without prolonged debate and stalling. This should be remembered as we examine the “back story” on the effort to enact federal unemployment extensions. Although the new Republican majority in the House will not take over until January 3, their massive wins will have an enormous impact on the lame duck. The Republicans seem to be willing to put as much as possible on hold until the new Congress meets in January.
Democrats had hoped that they would be able to pass legislation that would fund the government through the next fiscal year. As it stands now, all funding for federal operations will cease on December 3. Rather than agree to a full year’s funding, it seems obvious that support will only exist for another stopgap funding measure funding the government until February. This will allow the new Republican majority in the House to have an impact on the budget when it comes up again after the new Congress is seated on January 3.
The issue on the mind of many is the question of an unemployment extension and Tier V. Although this will be taken up as a separate piece of legislation, its fate is becoming more and more linked to one item high on the Republican agenda; the continuation of the Bush era tax cuts. Although many have previously suggested that there is linkage between the two, with the Democrats agreeing to the extension of the tax cuts and the Republicans agreeing to unemployment insurance extensions and possible expansions, it is now becoming clear that it’s not as simple as that.
If there was one common theme for the Republican candidates that succeeded in the midterms, it was reducing the size of the federal deficit. The Republican leadership senses that this issue had wide acceptance among the voters, a belief they see as vindicated by the victories on November 2.
Thus it seems that if any hope of any unemployment legislation being passed into law by the U.S. Congress during the lame duck session it will almost certainly have to be one that is fully paid for by reductions in spending elsewhere. Some Republican Senators have suggested that to fund unemployment extensions would cost about $5 billion a month. While the Congressional Budget Office – which is the only authority the Congress uses when considering the costs of legislation – has not issued a cost analysis of unemployment extensions, the $5 billion estimate is close to the mark according to staffers for Democratic senators who spoke off the record because they were not authorized to issue public statement. To enact a limited Tier V (20 weeks) will probably cost an additional six to eight billion per month, a figure that is higher then the cost of reauthorization of Tiers 1 – 4 to account for the ever-growing number of 99ers. In other words, the Republicans seem to be insisting that there be cuts in monthly federal spending levels if they are going to support unemployment legislation and will also insist on an extension of the Bush era tax cuts.
People who are waiting for the unemployment insurance to be reauthorized and expanded are of course wondering what will the bill look like; will it contain a Tier V? How many weeks will be authorized? Many will perhaps be surprised to learn that as of November 10, there has been no bill formally introduced in either the House or the Senate that specifically authorizes the renewal of Tiers 1 through 4 after their expiration on November 30. Now that the midterms are over it is almost certain that work is being performed on the legislative language of such a bill, however as it has not been introduced (and from all indications will probably not be introduced until after Thanksgiving) these questions will probably remain unanswered for at least two weeks or more.
While Representative Berkley in the House of Representatives and Senator Stabenow in the Senate have introduced bills which envision a Tier V, a careful side by side reading of these two bills show they are contradictory as to the conditions under which a Tier V would be made available which is a procedural problem. It is also worth noting that both of these bills envision paying for a Tier V as emergency spending (that is not paid for by reductions in the federal budget in other areas) and given the post election environment in the U.S. Congress it is hard to see these bills as going anywhere. Simply put, if a Tier V is to be created, it will more than likely have to be paid for with offsets if it is to get approval in both the House and the Senate.
It also has to be emphasized that the original Tiers 1 through 4 must be reauthorized because if they are not, there will not be anything under which a Tier V can be added. It also should be remembered that any legislation would require approval by both the House and the Senate before it can be signed into law.
It is an old saying in Washington that what legislation is passed is based on what can be done more than what should be done. This may sound cynical but it has been true since the first Congress met over 200 years ago. Even to pass what is becoming an obviously reduced “to do list” in the lame duck will not allow the leisurely pace that the entire Congress, but particularly the Senate, has taken during the past year.
One should also be aware that despite the fact that Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) is still Speaker of the House during the midterms, her influence and power are nowhere near the levels she enjoyed before the midterms. While it seems probable that she will continue in some leadership role in what will be the Democratic minority in the House when the new Congress constitutes itself on January 3, during the lame duck she will be far less able to influence legislation than previously.
Over in the Senate, Harry Reid (D, NV) will continue to wield significant power as Majority Leader. Because of the way the Senate operates, the Majority Leader in the Senate has far more power to schedule votes, or in the alternative block votes, and can determine what bills are considered when. Reid will continue to be Majority Leader in the next Congress, though there have been suggestions that Senator Reid, at 72 years old, may decide he would be happier in a less visible role as he starts what is likely to be his final term in office.
Readers may have noted that there has been no mention of the position of President Obama in this article. While the President has spoken of the need to continue federal extensions of unemployment insurance he has not offered any specifics. This is probably not an accident. President Obama is scheduled to have a meeting with both the Democratic and Republican leadership late next week, and expect some serious bargaining to go on at that meeting. Perhaps a clearer expression of what the President will support will occur after these consultations.
Many have bitterly condemned the Republicans for their obstructive tactics during the last two years, not only on unemployment extensions but a host of other issues. It now seems that at least the Republicans are laying a clearly identified “marker on the table” on what they will insist on to allow unemployment legislation to become law. The Democrats are not without cards in this high stakes political poker game. They are fully aware that the Republicans have made extension of the Bush tax cuts a highly visible goal. This will undoubtedly make the Republicans more willing to reach a compromise on other issues (including unemployment legislation) to get the tax cuts that they have identified as a key issue for them.
The waiting and tension created by this uncertainty has been a huge burden for those who lost their job through no fault of their own during the recess scheduled to end on November 15. While some are expecting that there will be immediate action on unemployment legislation as soon as the U.S. Congress goes back into session next week, it is extremely unlikely that this will happen. As this writer has pointed out in previous articles, the goal is not to have a vote, but the goal is to have a vote that passes. It is almost certain that it will take at least a week or more for the negotiations to take place to move toward a vote on both tax extensions and unemployment legislation and thus it will probably not be taken up until the U.S. Congress returns after Thanksgiving on November 29.
What can be said from a careful examination of the political landscape that will exist during the lame duck is that it is entirely too early to predict the end of federal unemployment extension or to assume a Tier V will not happen. In fact, it seems that the framework of a deal to make these desperately needed extensions is becoming clear. What remains to be seen is if the Congressional Democrats and Republicans as well as the White House will be willing to perhaps give up some of their pet issues and decide and how much they are willing to compromise to make unemployment extension and a Tier V into law.
© 2010 All247News. All rights reserved.
Michael Colliss.
Many long time observers of the U.S. Congress are beginning to see signs the agenda for the United States Congress during the lame duck session is beginning to take form. Before the lame duck session, the Democratic leadership had anticipated as many as 20 significant legislative actions during the lame duck. Now, recovering from their midterm losses, which President Obama called “a shellacking,” the Democratic leadership of both the House and the Senate are becoming resigned to a significantly scaled back list of hoped for legislation during the lame duck. It is reported that discussions are already being held between Congressional staff on what exactly can be enacted. The final, pared down list of legislative initiatives will probably not be clear until the Democratic leadership can meet with members upon their return to Washington next week but it does appear that unemployment extensions and possibly a Tier V legislation remain one of the items that will be taken up.
Looking at the history of midterms when there has been a shift in party control (which has occurred in the House in the November 2 election) it seems that the only things which get attention during such lame duck sessions are those things that A) have to be passed to avert a deadline or expiration and/or B) those things which can be quickly passed without prolonged debate and stalling. This should be remembered as we examine the “back story” on the effort to enact federal unemployment extensions. Although the new Republican majority in the House will not take over until January 3, their massive wins will have an enormous impact on the lame duck. The Republicans seem to be willing to put as much as possible on hold until the new Congress meets in January.
Democrats had hoped that they would be able to pass legislation that would fund the government through the next fiscal year. As it stands now, all funding for federal operations will cease on December 3. Rather than agree to a full year’s funding, it seems obvious that support will only exist for another stopgap funding measure funding the government until February. This will allow the new Republican majority in the House to have an impact on the budget when it comes up again after the new Congress is seated on January 3.
The issue on the mind of many is the question of an unemployment extension and Tier V. Although this will be taken up as a separate piece of legislation, its fate is becoming more and more linked to one item high on the Republican agenda; the continuation of the Bush era tax cuts. Although many have previously suggested that there is linkage between the two, with the Democrats agreeing to the extension of the tax cuts and the Republicans agreeing to unemployment insurance extensions and possible expansions, it is now becoming clear that it’s not as simple as that.
If there was one common theme for the Republican candidates that succeeded in the midterms, it was reducing the size of the federal deficit. The Republican leadership senses that this issue had wide acceptance among the voters, a belief they see as vindicated by the victories on November 2.
Thus it seems that if any hope of any unemployment legislation being passed into law by the U.S. Congress during the lame duck session it will almost certainly have to be one that is fully paid for by reductions in spending elsewhere. Some Republican Senators have suggested that to fund unemployment extensions would cost about $5 billion a month. While the Congressional Budget Office – which is the only authority the Congress uses when considering the costs of legislation – has not issued a cost analysis of unemployment extensions, the $5 billion estimate is close to the mark according to staffers for Democratic senators who spoke off the record because they were not authorized to issue public statement. To enact a limited Tier V (20 weeks) will probably cost an additional six to eight billion per month, a figure that is higher then the cost of reauthorization of Tiers 1 – 4 to account for the ever-growing number of 99ers. In other words, the Republicans seem to be insisting that there be cuts in monthly federal spending levels if they are going to support unemployment legislation and will also insist on an extension of the Bush era tax cuts.
People who are waiting for the unemployment insurance to be reauthorized and expanded are of course wondering what will the bill look like; will it contain a Tier V? How many weeks will be authorized? Many will perhaps be surprised to learn that as of November 10, there has been no bill formally introduced in either the House or the Senate that specifically authorizes the renewal of Tiers 1 through 4 after their expiration on November 30. Now that the midterms are over it is almost certain that work is being performed on the legislative language of such a bill, however as it has not been introduced (and from all indications will probably not be introduced until after Thanksgiving) these questions will probably remain unanswered for at least two weeks or more.
While Representative Berkley in the House of Representatives and Senator Stabenow in the Senate have introduced bills which envision a Tier V, a careful side by side reading of these two bills show they are contradictory as to the conditions under which a Tier V would be made available which is a procedural problem. It is also worth noting that both of these bills envision paying for a Tier V as emergency spending (that is not paid for by reductions in the federal budget in other areas) and given the post election environment in the U.S. Congress it is hard to see these bills as going anywhere. Simply put, if a Tier V is to be created, it will more than likely have to be paid for with offsets if it is to get approval in both the House and the Senate.
It also has to be emphasized that the original Tiers 1 through 4 must be reauthorized because if they are not, there will not be anything under which a Tier V can be added. It also should be remembered that any legislation would require approval by both the House and the Senate before it can be signed into law.
It is an old saying in Washington that what legislation is passed is based on what can be done more than what should be done. This may sound cynical but it has been true since the first Congress met over 200 years ago. Even to pass what is becoming an obviously reduced “to do list” in the lame duck will not allow the leisurely pace that the entire Congress, but particularly the Senate, has taken during the past year.
One should also be aware that despite the fact that Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) is still Speaker of the House during the midterms, her influence and power are nowhere near the levels she enjoyed before the midterms. While it seems probable that she will continue in some leadership role in what will be the Democratic minority in the House when the new Congress constitutes itself on January 3, during the lame duck she will be far less able to influence legislation than previously.
Over in the Senate, Harry Reid (D, NV) will continue to wield significant power as Majority Leader. Because of the way the Senate operates, the Majority Leader in the Senate has far more power to schedule votes, or in the alternative block votes, and can determine what bills are considered when. Reid will continue to be Majority Leader in the next Congress, though there have been suggestions that Senator Reid, at 72 years old, may decide he would be happier in a less visible role as he starts what is likely to be his final term in office.
Readers may have noted that there has been no mention of the position of President Obama in this article. While the President has spoken of the need to continue federal extensions of unemployment insurance he has not offered any specifics. This is probably not an accident. President Obama is scheduled to have a meeting with both the Democratic and Republican leadership late next week, and expect some serious bargaining to go on at that meeting. Perhaps a clearer expression of what the President will support will occur after these consultations.
Many have bitterly condemned the Republicans for their obstructive tactics during the last two years, not only on unemployment extensions but a host of other issues. It now seems that at least the Republicans are laying a clearly identified “marker on the table” on what they will insist on to allow unemployment legislation to become law. The Democrats are not without cards in this high stakes political poker game. They are fully aware that the Republicans have made extension of the Bush tax cuts a highly visible goal. This will undoubtedly make the Republicans more willing to reach a compromise on other issues (including unemployment legislation) to get the tax cuts that they have identified as a key issue for them.
The waiting and tension created by this uncertainty has been a huge burden for those who lost their job through no fault of their own during the recess scheduled to end on November 15. While some are expecting that there will be immediate action on unemployment legislation as soon as the U.S. Congress goes back into session next week, it is extremely unlikely that this will happen. As this writer has pointed out in previous articles, the goal is not to have a vote, but the goal is to have a vote that passes. It is almost certain that it will take at least a week or more for the negotiations to take place to move toward a vote on both tax extensions and unemployment legislation and thus it will probably not be taken up until the U.S. Congress returns after Thanksgiving on November 29.
What can be said from a careful examination of the political landscape that will exist during the lame duck is that it is entirely too early to predict the end of federal unemployment extension or to assume a Tier V will not happen. In fact, it seems that the framework of a deal to make these desperately needed extensions is becoming clear. What remains to be seen is if the Congressional Democrats and Republicans as well as the White House will be willing to perhaps give up some of their pet issues and decide and how much they are willing to compromise to make unemployment extension and a Tier V into law.
© 2010 All247News. All rights reserved.
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