London Guardian
NATO says 1,000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine as Kiev accuses Moscow of de facto invasion and opening second front
Shaun Walker in Kiev
World powers have called a succession of emergency meetings to step up the international response to Russia after Kiev accused Moscow of a de facto invasion and of opening up a second front in the conflict in eastern Europe.
The UN security council was meeting in emergency session, and Nato and EU leaders will consider a response on Friday, amid signs that hundreds of Russian soldiers are actively involved in the insurrection against Kiev's rule.
Russia denies that any of its troops are in eastern Ukraine. But on Thursday Nato said it estimated there were now more than 1,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The organisation released satellite images that it said showed Russian armoured vehicles and artillery had been crossing into Ukraine for at least a week.
A satellite image showing what Nato claims are self-propelled Russian artillery units inside Ukraine. Photograph: Nato/DigitalGlobe/EPA
The Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, said: "Russian forces have actually entered Ukraine," while Ukrainian fighters in the south-east said Russian forces had helped separatists take over the border town of Novoazovsk.
Western leaders swiftly seized on the latest escalation by warning Russian president Vladimir Putin of imminent consequences. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said the EU would discuss further sanctions at a summit this weekend, particularly in the light of the fresh incursion in which Russia stands accused of funnelling troops and hardware into the south-east of Ukraine.
"We are getting reports of an increased presence of Russian soldiers and of new unrest and fresh advances of the separatists in areas that until now were very quiet," she said. "We made it clear in March this year that if there were a further escalation, more sanctions would have to be discussed."
Jen Psaki, a US state department spokeswoman, said on Thursday that the US was considering its response to a "pattern of escalating aggression" by Russia and that increased sanctions were "the most effective tool, the best tool". She added: "A military solution is not what we think is the appropriate approach, so we're taking every tool that we can to see if we can reach a solution here through diplomatic means."
A spokesman for Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, said the latest allegations pointed to a "dangerous escalation" in the crisis, and added: "The international community cannot allow the situation to escalate further."
David Cameron said that if Russia did not desist "then she should be in no doubt that there will be further consequences".
The prime minister said: "I'm extremely concerned by mounting evidence that Russian troops have made large-scale incursions into south-eastern Ukraine, completely disregarding the sovereignty of a neighbour.
"The international community has already warned Russia that such provocative actions would be completely unacceptable and illegal. We urge Russia to pursue a different path and to find a political solution to this crisis. If Russia does not, then she should be in no doubt that there will be further consequences."
Western powers have already imposed a slew of sanctions on Moscow that have started to show signs of hurting Russia's economy. But Putin has responded in kind and, despite meeting Poroshenko for talks on the crisis in Minsk this week, has shown no signs of changing tack.
"Recent Russian actions clearly demonstrate that Moscow is bluntly drawing Ukraine and the entire world into a full-scale war," Ukraine's foreign ministry said after Poroshenko effectively accused Russia of mounting an invasion.
"Russian forces have actually entered Ukraine," he said, ordering an urgent meeting of Ukraine's national security council. "I have made a decision to cancel my working visit to the republic of Turkey due to sharp aggravation of the situation in Donetsk region, particularly in Amvrosiivka and Starobeshevo, as Russian troops were actually brought into Ukraine," he said. "The president must stay in Kiev today."Addressing the council, he called on Ukrainians not to panic, and said the situation in the country's east was "difficult but controllable". He also said consultations between the Russian and Ukrainian army HQs, as agreed in Minsk, had begun, mainly to talk about prisoner exchanges. But Ukrainian forces have lost control of Novoazovsk, a town on the border with Russia, after it was attacked by a military convoy that is believed to have crossed from Russia.
A separatist leader admitted there were serving Russian soldiers among his fighters. A Russian rights group said about 100 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine. Even members of Putin's human rights advisory council conceded evidence pointed to a Russian invasion.
"When masses of people, under commanders' orders, on tanks, APCs and with the use of heavy weapons, [are] on the territory of another country, cross the border, I consider this an invasion," Ella Polyakova told Reuters. She, and another member of the council, also said they believed that around 100 Russian soldiers had died earlier in the month when their convoy was hit by Grad missiles near the town of Snizhne in eastern Ukraine. There was no immediate way to confirm the figure.
However, Russian officials continued to deny there was any kind of invasion. The defence ministry told Russian agencies that reports of Russian military units acting in Ukraine were "fake".
"It feels like Kiev really needs a 'Russian armed invasion'," wrote Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, on Facebook. "It seems this is part of its big plan for scaring its own population, and the main answer to the question people there have: 'what on earth has happened to us?' It's scary to think what statements the Ukrainian officials will come up with on Halloween."
Russia has repeatedly denied it is fighting in Ukraine, and speaking after the Minsk negotiations, Putin said that a solution to the crisis in east Ukraine is "not our business; it is a domestic matter for Ukraine itself". He said all Russia could do was "support the creation of an environment of trust".
Putin's words, however, jar sharply with events on the ground. Fighters and weapons have long been able to move freely along the unguarded sections of Russia's border with Ukraine, and reporters in Novoazovsk say that what appears to be hastily repainted Russian military hardware has appeared in the town in recent days.
Russia's denials appear increasingly flimsy. When the Guardian saw a Russian armoured column cross the border two weeks ago, the foreign ministry and local security services denied any incursion had taken place, saying it was a border patrol that had not strayed into Ukrainian territory.
Earlier this week, when Russian paratroopers were captured well inside Ukraine, sources in the defence ministry also said they had been part of a border patrol that had got lost and entered Ukraine "by accident".
The head of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, admitted on Thursday that there were serving Russian soldiers among his fighters, but claimed they were volunteers who were taking a holiday in the region.
"Among the Russian volunteers there are many former soldiers, who are fighting alongside us and understand that it's their duty," said Zakharchenko in an interview with Russian television. "And moreover, I'll say it openly, we also have current soldiers, who decided to take their holidays not on the beach, but among us."
Although Putin's actions in Ukraine have been supported by the vast majority of Russians, there is increasing dissent inside the country about the growing evidence of a stealth war. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly Russia's richest man – who was released from jail late last year – said Russians should not be silent about the country's soldiers being killed in Ukraine and secretly buried.
"We are fighting in Ukraine, fighting for real," the former oligarch wrote. "Our authorities are always lying about this, in the 80s about Afghanistan, in the 90s about Chechnya and now about Ukraine. Why are we remaining silent? Have we become cowards? Are we scared of even thinking now?"
There have also been appeals from relatives of the soldiers captured in Ukraine, calling on Putin and the defence ministry to help bring the men home alive.
Kiev on Thursday called on its western allies for more support. The foreign ministry said: "Under the current circumstances, Ukraine counts on serious support from its international partners and believes that strengthening EU sanctions against Russia as well as providing Ukraine with military and technical support will help deter Russian aggression."
retsdon Comment in London Guardian
The Russian government knows what everyone else knows - that the legitimate and elected government of Ukraine was overthrown by a coup which was largely organized and financed by western spooks. Nothing new there - it's been done countless times before....
A democratic solution to avert the coup was rejected - Yanukovych Offers Early Presidential Vote to End Crisis ... - and the rest is history.
The Russian government also knows that the underlying conflict is about control of the massive Caucasus hydrocarbon reserves. and US geopolitical ambitions to control - or at least prevent Russian control - of them. That is why Ukraine had to be forcibly extracted from the Russian orbit of influence by the coup before any new agreement with Russia could be signed.
Russia believes that the west - and particularly the Americans - are playing a very dirty game and are not to be trusted. Evidence is on their side, quite frankly. Consequently, post-coup they were forced to make a decision. Do nothing - and risk having a US influenced Ukraine renege on the lease of Sevastopol, or secure a vital Russian strategic interest. They chose the latter course. That they did it with a local democratic vote is a propaganda plus, but they'd have likely done it anyway. They had no choice.
The Donbas regional conflict is different in that it's Ukrainian in origin. The people of the east had voted overwhelmingly for the Party of Regions, and had just seen their chosen government overthrown. So, emboldened by the Maidan coup and the Crimean annexation they pushed for some kind of autonomy. People took over buildings, waved flags, etc,etc, - Maidan style. In the heady days of early summer they held a shambolic local vote which was dismissed, not only by Kiev and the west, but also by the Russian government. The east then came out in open revolt, with locals armed with Baikal shotguns and Brno hunting rifles dressing themselves up and setting up checkpoints. Then came the massacre in Odessa and the mood got very ugly. New presidential elections were held, and Poroshenko was elected. His election was recognized not just by the west, but also by the Russian government.
Now here's where it all went off the rails. Poroshenko initially seemed amenable to negotiation but then - almost certainly pushed by Brennan (shale oil deposits) - he changed his tune and the war began in earnest.
Putin has maintained all along that the war is an internal Ukrainian dispute - and he's mostly right. That said, eastern Ukraine is largely Russian speaking; many locals have ties to Russia; and it was - and still isn't - possible politically for Putin, who also has a domestic audience, to simply leave the Donbas rebels to their fate.
The Russian position all along has been that the solution is negotiation. But victory or defeat is no basis for negotiation. My guess is that the Russians have taken a decision to do as little as possible -commensurate with not allowing the rebels to be militarily defeated. They intend to make the war un-winnable for Poroshenko, forcing him to come to some kind of sensible accommodation.
if this is actually the Russian position, it makes a lot of sense. Firstly, in the long run, a sensible compromise would be best for Ukraine as a whole - if not for Biden junior and Chevron. Secondly, the war - despite the gloss put on the cracks - is opening quite serious policy rifts between Europe and the US. And the longer the war goes on, the wider those rifts will become.
As long as the Russians back the rebels, they won't lose militarily. In the end, the protagonists will have to negotiate and Russia's position will be vindicated. And Brennan's war will have proved a bust.
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