WHAT’S NEW ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES?
Outsiders have always had a weakness for paranoid fantasies.
Now our leaders are conspiracists, too.
By Elizabeth Kolbert The New Yorker
Crazy ideas have long been a fixture of American life. Now
paranoia thrives at the center of power, not just the fringes.
On the morning of December 4, 2016, Edgar Maddison Welch, a
warehouse worker and a father of two from Salisbury, North Carolina, told his
family that he had a few things to do; loaded an AR-15, a .38-calibre revolver,
and a folding knife into his car; and headed for Washington, D.C. Welch’s
intention, he later told police, was to “self-investigate” a plot featuring—in
no particular order—Hillary Clinton, sex trafficking, satanic rituals, and
pizza.
At around 3 p.m., Welch arrived at Comet Ping Pong, a
restaurant in Chevy Chase, where, he believed, children were being held in a
network of tunnels. He made his way to the kitchen, shot open a locked door,
and discovered cooking utensils. In an interview from jail, a few days later,
he acknowledged to the Times, “The intel on this wasn’t a hundred percent.”
He’d found no captive children in the restaurant’s basement; in fact, as many
accounts of the incident noted, Comet Ping Pong doesn’t even have a basement.
Far from being dissuaded by the new “intel,” believers in
what had become known as Pizzagate dug in. Welch had dabbled in acting—he’d
appeared as a victim in a low-budget slasher movie—thus, it followed, his raid
on the restaurant had been staged. That the plotters had gone to such lengths
to cover their tracks showed just how much evil there was to hide. “This shit
runs very deep,” a contributor to the subreddit thread r/Conspiracy wrote. All
the while, the restaurant’s owner was receiving death threats.
Some ten months after the incident at Comet Ping Pong, a
prediction surfaced on the Web that Clinton would soon be arrested. “Expect
massive riots organized in defiance,” an anonymous poster, Q, warned on the
message board 4chan. Other prophecies followed: Clinton’s campaign chairman,
John Podesta, would also be arrested; members of the media would be “jailed as
deep cover agents”; there would be a Twitter blackout heralding a government
purge.
As Q’s prophecies failed, more converts were won over.
QAnon, as Q’s world view came to be known, subsumed—or, if you prefer,
consumed—Pizzagate, and then it, too, slunk off the Web and into the world.
Last June, an unemployed former marine named Matthew Wright parked a home-built
armored truck on the Mike O’Callaghan–Pat Tillman Memorial Bridge, which spans
the Colorado River on the border of Arizona and Nevada. Wright, who, like
Welch, was armed with an AR-15 and a handgun, blocked traffic for almost ninety
minutes before surrendering to police. At one point, he held up a sign that
said “Release the OIG report,” a reference to another QAnon prediction,
involving the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General. Following
his arrest, Wright wrote a letter to the White House saying that he “simply
wanted the truth on behalf of all Americans, all of humanity for that matter.”
America has always had a weakness for paranoid fantasies.
According to some historians, the Founding Fathers were moved to write the
Declaration of Independence by groundless fears of a British plot. “Conspiracy
Theories in American History,” a two-volume encyclopedia, runs from
“Abolitionism” to “zog.” (zog, an acronym used by survivalists, is shorthand
for the “Zionist Occupied Government,” which, the encyclopedia explains, refers
to an “international Jewish conspiracy to undermine U.S. sovereignty and true
Christianity.”) In between are some three hundred entries, including “Black
Helicopters,” “Contrails,” “Illuminati,” “Moon Landings,” “Pan Am 103,” and
“Roswell.”
In this context, Pizzagate and QAnon could be considered
madness as usual—just two late-alphabet entries in the annals of national
crankdom. But is that all there is to it? Or are deeper, darker forces at work?
A confirmed conspiracist now occupies the White House and, “no collusion”
notwithstanding, there’s evidence that an international conspiracy put him
there. Coincidence? To paraphrase Q, perhaps it’s time to “expand our
thinking.”
Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum are professors of
government at, respectively, Dartmouth and Harvard. A few years ago, they found
themselves, in their words, “startled into thought.” Yes, they knew, crazy
ideas were a fixture of American life. But not this crazy. “The subject required
more detailed and thoughtful interpretation,” the two write at the beginning of
“A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on
Democracy.”
“Classic” conspiracy theories, according to Muirhead and
Rosenblum, arise in response to real events—the assassination of John F.
Kennedy, say, or the terrorist attacks of September 11th. Such theories, they
argue, constitute a form of explanation, however inaccurate they may be. What
sets theories like QAnon apart is a lack of interest in explanation. Indeed, as
with the nonexistent child-trafficking ring being run out of the nonexistent
basement, “there is often nothing to explain.” The professors observe, “The new
conspiracism sometimes seems to arise out of thin air.”
The constituency, too, has shifted. Historically, Muirhead
and Rosenblum maintain, it’s been out-of-power groups that have been drawn to
tales of secret plots. Today, it’s those in power who insist the game is
rigged, and no one more insistently than the so-called leader of the free
world.
Donald Trump got his start in national politics as a
“birther,” promoting the idea that President Barack Obama wasn’t born in the
United States. Several news organizations have tried to keep track of the
conspiracy theories Trump has floated since then. One list, posted by the Web
site Business Insider, has nineteen entries. These include the claims that
vaccines can cause autism and that Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia may
have been murdered.
“They’re saying they found the pillow on his face,” Trump
said of Scalia, during the 2016 campaign, “which is a pretty unusual place to
find a pillow.” (The Business Insider list is limited to full-blown conspiracy
theories, and excludes the President’s more casual lies and fabrications.) “No
president—indeed, no national official—has resorted to accusations of
conspiracy so instinctively, so frequently, and with such brio as Donald
Trump,” Muirhead and Rosenblum write.
With Trump in power, they worry, there’s a danger that his
dark fantasies may be realized. Democracies depend on buy-in; citizens need to
believe in certain basics, starting with the legitimacy of elections. Trump
both runs the government and runs it down. The electoral system, he asserts,
can’t be trusted. Voter fraud is rampant. His contempt for institutions ranging
from the courts (“slow and political”) to the Federal Communications Commission
(“so sad and unfair”) to the F.B.I. (“What are they hiding?”) weakens those
institutions, thereby justifying his contempt. As government agencies “lose
competence and capacity, they will come to look more and more illegitimate to
more and more people,” Muirhead and Rosenblum observe.
Trump is so closely tied to the “new conspiracism” that it
can be hard to tell the ranter from the rant. Then again, it’s hard to imagine
his ascent without other key developments: the polarization of the electorate,
a generation of attacks (mostly from the right) on the news media and
government, and, of course, the rise of the Web. Spreading conspiracy theories
once had a price—printing or even mimeographing a tract costs money—but now, as
Muirhead and Rosenblum point out, anyone can post a madcap theory or a doctored
photograph virtually for free.
The Internet revolution “has displaced the gatekeepers, the
producers, editors, and scholars who decided what was worthy of dissemination,”
they write. This has opened the way for “conspiracy entrepreneurs” who proffer
“a seemingly infinite array of wild accusations.”
Is it possible to make a rigorous study of conspiracy
theories? The task seems self-punishing, like trying to housebreak a chicken.
Nevertheless, this is the mission that Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent
have chosen to take on. Research into conspiracy theories “has been hampered by
a lack of long-term systematic data,” Uscinski and Parent, political scientists
at the University of Miami and the University of Notre Dame, respectively,
write in “American Conspiracy Theories.” Fortunately, “methods are now
available to better scrutinize what we think we know.”
One of these methods is polling. Uscinski and Parent
commissioned a survey of more than twelve hundred Americans, which asked them
to react to statements like “Much of our lives are being controlled by plots
hatched in secret places.” On the basis of their answers, respondents were
sorted into three groups: “high” (those predisposed to conspiratorial
thinking), “low” (those opposed to it), and “medium” (those in the middle).
Then the researchers looked at the cross-tabulations. The less educated the
respondent, the more likely he or she was to be a “high.” The poor tended to be
more conspiratorially inclined than the rich. Roughly equal proportions of
Democrats and Republicans were given to conspiracizing, but among respondents
who identified with neither party the proportion jumped.
The conspiracy-minded, Uscinski and Parent conclude,
“deserve their reputation as outsiders.” They are less likely to vote and more
apt to view bloodshed as a form of political protest. While eighty per cent of
the “lows” rejected the idea that “violence is sometimes an acceptable way to
express disagreement with the government,” among the “highs” that figure
dropped to fifty-nine per cent. “It is disconcerting that, when asked about gun
control, around half of those with higher conspiratorial predispositions wanted
less strict gun laws,” Uscinski and Parent observe.
For more long-term data, they turned to newspapers. A
battery of assistants sifted through more than a hundred years’ worth of
letters to the editor published in the Times and in the Chicago Tribune.
Letters that referred to any sort of group acting in secret “at the expense of
the common good” were coded as “conspiracy talk.” (No effort was made to
distinguish between “talk” about actual conspiracies, e.g., Watergate, and
baseless speculation.) The groups denounced in such missives included the usual
suspects—Catholics, Communists, Jews, the United Nations—as well as more
surprising targets: ice companies, Lutheran newspapers, the Senate printing office,
and the Prime Minister of Malta. The schemes, too, ranged all over the
diabolical map, from Herbert Hoover’s secret business deals to bankrupt the
U.S. to a C.I.A. plot to spread lesbianism.
When Uscinski and Parent tallied the number of conspiracy-coded
letters published each year, they found no twenty-first-century surge in
paranoid thinking. On the contrary, averaging out the short-term ups and downs,
they conclude that the amount of “conspiracy talk” has remained constant since
the nineteen-sixties and has actually declined since the eighteen-nineties: “We
do not live in an age of conspiracy theories and have not for some time.” That
we believe we do makes sense, since that sentiment, too, is a constant.
“It’s official: America is becoming a conspiratocracy,” the
Daily News announced in 2011. “Are we living in a golden age of conspiracy
theory?” the Boston Globe wondered in 2004. It’s the “dawn of a new age of
conspiracy theory,” the Washington Post declared in 1994.
“Presumably we could multiply examples back to Salem in
1692, but you understand the point,” Uscinski and Parent write. “Conspiracy
scares are ubiquitous.” According to their analysis, short-term variations in
the rate of conspiracy theorizing do not coincide with changing economic conditions
or advances in technology, like the Web.
Such is their take on “scares” that it’s hard to imagine
them finding anything new in the “new conspiracism.” Still, when it comes to
paranoia in high places, they share some of Muirhead and Rosenblum’s concerns.
When there’s an uptick in conspiracy theorizing by members of the
“élite”—defined as government officials, entertainers, and journalists—they
observe a corresponding uptick in paranoid theorizing more generally. “This
means you, Donald Trump,” they write.
In 2015, a young journalist named Anna Merlan took a cruise
to Mexico. Most of the passengers on board the ship, the Ruby Princess, were
ordinary vacationers, but a significant minority had signed on for a
cruise-within-a-cruise, dubbed by its organizers Conspira-Sea. The Conspira-Sea
crowd was treated to lectures from various “experts,” including Andrew
Wakefield, the British doctor whose bogus studies launched the anti-vaxx
movement. When Merlan returned to shore, she wrote a lighthearted feature about
the experience, for the Web site Jezebel, in which she poked fun at the
Conspira-Sea-ers for having lost touch with reality. Then Trump was elected and
Edgar Welch showed up with his guns at Comet Ping Pong. Merlan decided that
perhaps she was the one who was out of touch.
In “Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy Theorists and
Their Surprising Rise to Power,” Merlan immerses herself in various subcultures
of suspicion. She visits a gathering of white nationalists in eastern Kentucky;
attends the annual meeting of the Mutual U.F.O. Network, known as mufon; and
hangs out with proponents of “redemption theory,” a strain of nuttiness based
on the idea that every American is owed a cache of cash held secretly by the
government. One of her first stops is a rally of Pizzagate diehards in
Lafayette Park, not far from the White House. This takes place in March, 2017,
three months after Welch’s arrest. Merlan finds the crowd split into factions,
each convinced that the other is made up of plants. She’s interviewing a woman
who wants to be known as LaLa when she notices a man filming them with his
phone. The man accuses LaLa of belonging to the “controlled opposition.” He, in
turn, is approached by other phone-wielding demonstrators and charged with
working to undermine the cause.
“You’re protecting child molesters, bro,” someone yells at
him. But who’s supposed to be doing the controlling or why is never quite
clear. “It seems that the core element from everyone inside this ‘movement’ is
distrust for everyone around them,” LaLa relates to Merlan. “Nobody knows who’s
on whose side, or what the truth is.”
Merlan encounters this dynamic frequently. People who
believe conspiracy theories, it turns out, often suspect others who believe
such theories of being crazy, or worse. At the mufon conference, just outside
Las Vegas, a speaker named Corey Goode, an eminent figure in the world of
ufology, describes how, as a kid, he was taken to an underground facility at
Carswell Air Force Base, in Texas, and trained to fight aliens. Later, Goode maintains,
he roamed around the solar system doing “surveillance and recon,” until,
finally, his government handlers performed “age regression” and sent him back
home, once again as a child. Another U.F.O. researcher at the convention,
Richard Dolan, tells Merlan he’s worried about claims like Goode’s, which
“aren’t particularly credible.” Like the crowd in Lafayette Park, Dolan is
concerned about plants, who he fears are out to undermine the whole ufology
enterprise. History, he observes, is “replete with provocateurs and
disinformation coming from U.S. government channels.”
Americans, as Merlan notes, have long suspected the
government of suppressing the truth about extraterrestrials—such suspicions
probably predate the term “extraterrestrial.” Other conspiracy theories, she
observes, have even deeper roots. The charge of ritual child abuse, key to
Pizzagate, was levelled against the Jews back in the Middle Ages. It has
surfaced many times since, including during what’s become known as the Satanic
Panic—a rash of allegations that sent more than twenty Californians to prison
in the nineteen-eighties. (Virtually all the convictions have since been
overturned.) Conspiracism, Merlan concludes, has “more or less always been with
us”: pizza-parlor workers have simply replaced day-care workers, who replaced
Jews.
But she also makes the opposite point. Like Muirhead and
Rosenblum, Merlan believes that something novel and dangerous is going on right
now. In her account, Trump gets a lot of the credit (or, if you prefer, the
blame) and so, too, does the Internet. Merlan cites the Columbine shooting,
which took place in 1999, “before the age of YouTube, easily buildable blogs,
and widely used social media platforms.”After the shooting, no one came forward
to propose that Columbine had been staged. Today, it is pretty much guaranteed
that a mass shooting will give rise to a community on the Web that insists the
victims are “crisis actors.” Merlan interviews Lenny Pozner, a former I.T.
consultant whose six-year-old son, Noah, died in the Sandy Hook Elementary
School shooting, in 2012. Pozner has spent most of the past six years battling
conspiracists who insist that the shooting never happened and that Noah never
even existed. (In February, a Connecticut judge ordered Alex Jones, the owner
of the Web site Infowars and a leading purveyor of the Sandy Hook-as-hoax
theory, to sit for a deposition in a lawsuit brought by the parents of slain
children. In the deposition, in March, Jones claimed that a “form of psychosis”
had made him believe the massacre was staged.)
“This category of recent conspiracy theorists is really a
global network of village idiots,” Pozner tells Merlan. “They would have never
been able to find each other before, but now it’s this synergistic effect of the
combination of all of them from all over the world. There are haters from
Australia and Europe and they can all make a YouTube video in fifteen seconds.”
During the 2016 Presidential election, Zeynep Tufekci was
watching tapes of Trump rallies when she noticed something odd. Tufekci, an
associate at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society and a
self-described techno-sociologist, found that YouTube began cuing up for her
videos filled with racist diatribes and Holocaust denials. She wondered what
was going on, so she created another account and began watching clips of
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. This time, she found herself directed to
what she later described in the Times as “videos of a leftish conspiratorial
cast,” including some that argued that the U.S. government was responsible for
the attacks of September 11th.
Tufekci concluded that YouTube had decided that the best way
to hold viewers’ attention was to push them toward more and more sensational
material. The motive wasn’t political; it was commercial. And probably the
scheme wasn’t the work of a cabal, or even a person, but of an algorithm. “What
we are witnessing is the computational exploitation of a natural human desire:
to look ‘behind the curtain,’ ” Tufekci wrote.
At a minimum, what’s new about the “new conspiracism” is the
number of people exposed to it. If there’s a “natural human desire” to get at
some hidden truth, it’s never been easier to indulge that desire—or to imagine
doing so—via YouTube or Infowars or Twitter. It’s unclear how many of those who
are led to posts on the “truth” about 9/11 or listen to Alex Jones or follow
Trump’s tweets actually believe what they encounter, but only a tiny fraction
can create a very big problem; after all, almost two billion people click on
YouTube videos every month. In a tacit acknowledgment of responsibility,
Pinterest blocked vaccine-related searches on its sites after measles outbreaks
in several states this winter. Facebook, too, recently said that it would
“reduce the ranking of groups or Pages that spread misinformation about
vaccinations.” In January, without ever explaining how its “up next” algorithm
works, YouTube announced that it would “begin reducing recommendations of
borderline content,” including videos “making blatantly false claims about
historic events like 9/11.”
Meanwhile, Pizzagate stumbles on. A couple of months ago,
another man was arrested in connection with Comet Ping Pong—this one for
setting fire to the place. ♦︎